One of the most famous and well-meaning sayings of the eighteenth century German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, is that what we learn from history is that we don’t learn from history. I remember reading this in a speech by Robert McNamara, the U.S. Secretary of Defence during the Vietnam War, which ended more than half a century ago. He later became president of the World Bank.

The US and other military powers do not learn from their historical failures and mend their ways. The military powers do not hesitate to continue making mistakes in order to dominate the world.

The great powers are labouring under the misconception that they can ensure their own security by means of military aggression against the countries they consider their enemies. History is replete with instances that prove that military power does not yield the desired results.

The United States ‘accomplished’ nothing in the Vietnam War except to kill millions of people. It suffered the same humiliating defeat in the war after its occupation of Afghanistan in the first two decades of this century. The US, which invaded Afghanistan in 2001 with the stated aim of destroying the al-Qaeda movement and democratizing the country by defeating Taliban, had to leave in a shameful manner, handing over Afghanistan to the same Taliban 20 years later.

The US invaded Iraq in 2003, claiming that Saddam Hussein had stockpiled Weapons of Mass Destruction(WMD). No such weapons were found in Iraq after the occupation. The US invaded Libya in 2011, claiming to protect its people from Gaddafi’s authoritarian rule. Fourteen years later, Libya still has no stable government.

US President Donald Trump teamed up with Israel recently to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, despite US intelligence agencies saying three months ago that Iran did not have an active nuclear weapon program.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) director general, Rafael Grossi, recently said there is no evidence that Iran is working towards producing nuclear weapons. After all, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard  said in testimony before a congressional committee last March, that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons. But Trump ignored what she and the US intelligence community say.

The recent situation in the Middle East shows that Trump lied in order to justify his planned bombing of Iran. But, in a strange turn of events, after the President’s rebuttal of her statement before Congress, Gabbard made an about turn claiming that Iran could produce nuclear weapons within months. She has her position apparently under duress.

In handling the furore over Iran’s nuclear program, President Trump along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made the same mistake made by former US president George W. Bush and former British PM Tony Blair before invading Iraq in the beginning of this century.

Trump, who prided himself on not getting the United States into wars during his first term, went to war with Iran early in his second term and has created a tumultuous situation in the world with his rhetoric and actions not suitable for a president of the world’s biggest power.

International Law Ignored 

An undeclared nuclear weapon state and the only country so far to have conducted nuclear bomb attacks, has wreaked havoc by launching deadly bomb attacks on a country they suspected of producing nuclear weapons. In the Middle East today, it is the United States and Israel that decide not only when to start a war, but also when to make a ceasefire, regardless of international law.

Some international observers say that Iran was bombed by Israel and the US, simply because it does not have nuclear weapon. Had Iran developed the atomic bomb, even in single digits, there is no chance that either Israel or the US would not have attacked the country.

At the same time, Israel’s continued refusal to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is not a problem for the United States.

Israel began bombing Iran on June 13, three days before US and Iranian officials were scheduled to meet again, having already held five rounds of talks on the nuclear program. Trump, who unilaterally pulled out of the nuclear deal Iran signed with the United States, the European Union and the IAEA during the Obama administration in his first term, has said he wanted a new  deal with Tehran. The Iranian government is not ready to accept Trump’s terms for agreement.

Unwilling to see a deal signed between the US and Iran, Israel has carried out a series of deadly bombings of Iran’s nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. Several of Iran’s top military commanders were killed in the attacks. Instead of condemning those dastardly attacks, which disrupted his diplomatic efforts with Iran, the US president defended them. He also demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender.

Trump, who had announced that he would decide in two weeks whether to join Israel’s  war with Iran, suddenly launched a series of bomb attacks on the Persian country’s nuclear facilities early June 22. He declared that all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, suspected of producing nuclear weapons, had been obliterated  and declared an automatic ceasefire.

Although Iran had launched missile attacks against Israel and US military bases in the Middle East, it has been severely weakened militarily. Iran’s airspace had been under Israeli control for almost  two weeks. Israel reluctantly agreed to the ceasefire after Trump was angered by Israel’s continued attacks on Iran despite his ceasefire declaration.

For Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the continuation of the genocide in Gaza and the conflict with Iran were also linked to his political survival at home. It seems that he thinks it would not be in Israel’s interests if Tehran began a rapprochement with Washington by entering into an agreement on the nuclear program.

Regime change 

So far, only major powers such as the United States have talked about bringing about regime change in the countries ruled by the leaders they despise. But the situation has changed so much that even Israel, a small country dependent entirely on the United States, is also talking about regime change in Iran.

Despite agreeing to ceasefire, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that US military bases in the Middle East would be hit if his country came under attack again.

Trump expects a weakened Iran to accept US conditions and sign the nuclear deal. There were conflicting views within the Trump administration about the extent of the destruction suffered by Iran after the bombing. While Trump says Iran has no choice but to resume talks, the Iranian leader is talking about exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Military analysts say the US was forced to join the attacks on Iran after Israel faced a major crisis in intercepting Iran’s missiles. The Iron Dome, Israel’s mobile anti-missile system, is said to have been significantly weakened. For Israel, it has adopted tactics that allow it to achieve victories in a short period of time without prolonging wars.

As for Trump, he also used his hatred of America’s past wars as a tactic to build his support base. Therefore, any attempt to involve American forces in protracted wars again would be counterproductive for him. His handling of the Middle East crisis has already sparked opposition among his supporters.

On the one hand, Trump, who is fully supporting the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza and Israel’s occupation of Arab lands, is also tempted to portray himself as an apostle of peace. Trump said he was instrumental in the suspension of hostilities between India and Pakistan two months ago, after civilian deaths in militant attacks in Kashmir. But India did not accept it. India has maintained that the ceasefire agreement was reached due to efforts made at the highest levels of the two militaries.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire in May as a result of his efforts. Addressing journalists on the side-lines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in The Hague recently, the US President said the recent India-Pakistan conflict was one of the military conflicts he had brought to an end. It is reported that he has said so eighteen times so far.

The irony then, was that the Pakistani government announced recently that it had decided to formally recommend Trump’s name for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for his ‘decisive diplomatic intervention’ during the recent India-Pakistan conflicts. Islamabad’s announcement came three days after Trump met with Pakistani military commander Azim Munir at the White House. It was the first time a sitting US president met a Pakistani military commander while a civilian government is in power in the country.

Multi-polar world order in question 

Trump’s current approach to international issues and the lukewarm reactions of other countries, especially China, Russia and the European Union have put the so-called multi-polar world order in question. It seems that the world has got used to his shifting policy positions.

The cessation of hostilities has brought relief to the world as the conflict between Iran and Israel threatened not only the Middle East but also other parts of the world.

China and Russia, which have made some diplomatic moves in the recent past to challenge long-standing US hegemony in the Middle East, could do little when the US launched attacks on Iran. While Trump had said he had no plans to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and Israel’s prime minister had said his goal was not only to destroy Iran’s nuclear program but also to bring about regime change, no major country in the world has condemned it.

The rest of the world seems to have accepted what the US and the West talk about -the exclusive right of self-defence for Israel. For nearly two years, the world has been watching Israel destroy Gaza and pushing it back to the stone age.

The world is witnessing a televised genocide. Israel’s prime minister, who has been convicted of crimes against humanity and war crimes, and was served an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, has become the determinant of the Middle East’s security agenda.

The world is watching idly when Trump says that he has a plan to send millions of Palestinians in Gaza to neighbouring countries or elsewhere and turn the valley into a  ‘Riviera of the Middle East’. The Two-state solution to the Palestinian crisis is no longer likely to be the US position. There is not a rule-based international system in place today.

The Hamas movement must have thought about how the international community would react to possible retaliatory attacks by Israel before launching a massive attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The movement fighting for the emancipation  of the Palestinians who are easily vulnerable, must have thought long and hard about its approaches before taking on the enemy  

Today, the world simply stands by and watches as hundreds of Palestinians are killed every day in Gaza. The United Nations is in a position to do nothing but merely express concern. The world did not seem to notice Gaza during the days of conflict between Iran and Israel.

In the midst of such an international scenario, our Tamil polity which relies on the help of the international community to hold accountable those involved in alleged human rights violations and war crimes during the final stages of Sri Lanka’s civil war, has many things to consider