Human-made disasters have been a trademark of the country, nevertheless we were reminded of what nature could unveil, last week. A positive take away has been shock, pain, empathy, anger and response. This is a country which for decades stood mute and watched enormous bloodletting, loss of life and more. To recover a sense of humanity is a positive development in itself.
This piece wishes to underscore the fact we could experience several such horrifying disasters as seen last week, periodically.
The reasons are several. Asia and the Pacific are the global region most prone to disasters. It is likely this situation will be considerably aggravated by climate change. Four environmental disruptions induced by climate change are of particular concern in Asia and the Pacific:
- Sea-level rise and storm surge,
- Cyclones and typhoons,
- River (riparian) flooding,
- Water stress and drought.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth Assessment Report highlights South Asia’s vulnerability to climate change, predicting rising temperatures, more variable precipitation, and increasing intensity and frequency of natural hazards.
The geographical location of Sri Lanka makes the country prone to several natural hazards, mostly weather and water-related, such as:
- flooding,
- landslides,
- lightning,
- drought,
- tsunamis, etc.
Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to disasters stems from its high population density and economic activities, which are mainly concentrated in flood-prone and coastal areas.
Evidence of changing climate conditions across the island includes rising annual average mean temperatures, rainfall, and drought patterns, among other things, with the dry and intermediate (D&I) zones, considered the island’s agricultural heartland, being more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the country.
Asia and the Pacific will be greatly impacted by climate change, partly because of its high exposure to climate impacts and partly because of the great vulnerability of some areas. This warming will be least rapid in Southeast Asia, but stronger in South and East Asia, and stronger in the inner parts of Asia, especially in North Asia.
South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia will also very likely experience an increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and flash floods, as well as a 10 -20% increase in tropical cyclone intensities. Sea-level rise should also be greater than average in the region, at about 3 mm/year. (Cruz et al. 2007).
Among the impacts of these changes is a possibly significant decrease in cereal production, though there will regional differences in maize, wheat, and rice yields. A northwards shift of arable lands is also likely; currently a large share of the region’s arable lands are put to use.
Livestock, fisheries, water resources, and food supply could also be significantly reduced. The different socioeconomic impacts of climate change could influence migration patterns in different ways. Climate-related disruptions of human populations and consequent migrations can be expected over the coming decades.
Due to a combination of heavy rainfall, geological changes in the hill country, and deforestation, the severity of landslides in the country’s mountainous regions has increased over the past two decades. In the districts of Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Kalutara, Kandy, and Matale, landslides are prevalent.
According to estimates from multiple models, Sri Lanka’s annual mean temperatures will increase. There will be sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion, with the greatest impact on the west, southwest, and southern coastal regions, where nearly half of Sri Lanka’s population resides.
The northern region of the country is frequently struck by cyclones, especially in November and December. In the past, cyclones and other climate-related disasters have been relatively mild, but their frequency and magnitude are likely to increase in the future.
Conventional challenges faced by the irrigation sector in the country get compounded and more complex due to increased risks posed by natural hazards, intensified by climate change and other changes.
This analysis is a decade old! The President addressing the Parliament mentioned that none of our emergency preparedness plans were ready for a disaster of this magnitude.
Our weather watch needs to be global, regional and national. It needs to be done in such a manner that any nastiness in the weather is picked days early. Every Sri Lankan Airlines flight is plotted to ensure it uses the best weather route. Similarly, we need to link with globally renowned weather stations, nations with satellite technology for developments in the air, on land in the subcontinent and underwater.
Our Met Department needs to analyse real-time, 24/7. The Disaster Management Centre (DMC) needs to be embedded with the Met dept. When a response becomes essential, it needs to connect with the regions. Where harm is possible, the information must reach the public who could be affected. Food, shelter, water, medicine, transport and telecommunication must keep apace in support. Depending on the nature of the disaster, human resources, mobile assets need to become online. Where finances are needed, the Treasury is required. This is the response.
Prevention is equally important – flood prevention, soil erosion, sedimentation and water holding capacity. Sri Lanka will continue to be at the receiving end of bad weather. Weather and climate are not restricted by national boundaries. From the Middle East to the glaciers of Bhutan and Nepal to the Arctic, dramatic changes are visible.
Technology has kept pace. The country, region and subregion need to work on these facts. We do not see such a focus at present. It is a folly with very expensive and dire consequences.
Lastly, emergency health professionals work with their sciences in trauma facilities. Similarly, disaster response is about saving lives and property from harm. It is specialised and technocratic in nature. Politics and politicians have no role in disaster management, mitigation or prevention.
